NDA crosses Bihar exit polls projections, even beats Amit Shah’s prediction
Pulling off a stunning performance, according to the Election Commission of India (ECI) trends, the BJP and JDU-led NDA surged far beyond what most exit polls projected after a few hours of counting of votes for the Bihar assembly elections 2025. Not just did it outdo exit poll projections, its leads also surpassing Amit Shah’s confident prediction of 160 seats.
What Bihar exit polls and Shah predicted
Bihar exit polls had largely forecast a comfortable edge for the NDA, but the final numbers show the alliance outperforming even the most optimistic estimates.
Amit Shah, during a TV interview election rally earlier this month, had said the NDA will more than 160 seats and form government in Bihar. "We will win more than 160 seats and form a government in Bihar," Shah had said in an interview with Times Now, adding, "Nitish Kumar is the CM here and Narendra Modi is the PM there. The CM's seat is not vacant, and neither is the PM's."
At 12:20 am, the National Democratic Alliance was leading on over 180 seats, according to ECI data, while the Mahagathbandhan - of Tejashwi Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress primarily - struggled to even cross the 60-mark.
These, however, were only EC trends and subject to changes as several rounds of counting were still to take place.
Most exit polls on Tuesday projected a clear edge for the ruling NDA, predicting 130 to 172 seats in the 243-member House, where the majority mark stands at 122. Only one pollster - Poll Diary - had projected up to 209 seats for the NDA.
The Mahagathbandhan, meanwhile, appeared to be headed for a humiliating defeat and was struggling to lead on even 60 seats, way below the projected upper margin of 118 seats by pollsters.